Diagnosing ISO Forecast from GloSea5 Using Dynamic-Oriented ISO Theory

A Madden–Jillian oscillation (MJO) and boreal summer intraseasonal (BSISO) are important climate variabilities, which affect a forecast of weather climate. In this study, the MJO BSISO hindcasts from Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GS5) were diagnosed using dynamic-oriented theories. We additionally analyzed GS5 climatological run to identify whether weakness hindcast results model physics or initialization processes. The captures three-dimensional dynamics thermodynamics structure eastward propagation well in Indian Ocean. produces boundary layer (BL) moisture convergence anomalies east deep precipitation with easterly associated Kelvin wave. enhanced BL increases upward transport surface lower troposphere, inducing moist troposphere positive convective instability by destabilization atmosphere and, thus, generating next convection promoting propagation. However, signal for is relatively weak Maritime Continent (MC) Western Pacific (WP). To improve MC WP, improved heating induced shallow (or congestus) clouds interacting may be required. On other hand, reproduces northward reasonably Ocean, attributed vorticity strong vertical shear.